Published in the New Zealand Herald on 30 Oct, 2019.
Many people have a vague awareness that quantum computing is a revolutionary emerging technology. Recently, a major milestone was reached. A quantum computer was shown to have "Quantum Supremacy" over a conventional, or "classic", digital computer.
"Quantum Supremacy" is the point at which a quantum computer can be shown to solve a problem that the most powerful classic computer cannot.
Will Oliver, an MIT professor and quantum specialist, likened the computing milestone to the first flight of the Wright brothers at Kitty Hawk in aviation.
In this case, Google used NASA's Summit classical supercomputer, the world's current-fastest, to run a parallel experiment with a quantum computer.
The quantum computer took just over three minutes to complete the task. It is estimated that the supercomputer would take 10,000 years.
The potential of quantum computing is very exciting. It is not just another ultra-fast computer; it is a completely different animal. The key to understanding quantum computers is that they are nothing like conventional computers, which are based on the laws of classical physics.
If you double the number of transistors and memory in a conventional computer, computing power should double.
Instead of the 0 and 1 "bits" that we are familiar with, a quantum computer has quantum bits, or qubits ("cue-bits").
Because cubits can be both 0 and 1 at the same time, they can solve problems much faster by working in parallel, rather than one step at a time.
When just a single qubit is added to a quantum computer, its power generally doubles. This exponential power is a key reason why quantum computing is so powerful.
Quantum mechanics, or quantum physics, which studies the laws of nature on the scale of atoms and particles, challenges our intuition. Do not despair. Even Richard Feynman, who won a Nobel Prize in physics, and pioneered much work in the quantum mechanics field, declared that: "I think I can safely say that nobody understands quantum mechanics".
There are many challenges ahead for the development of commercial quantum computers. They are very difficult to engineer and build. Programming quantum computers is an entirely new paradigm.
What should you do about quantum computing? If your firm deals with complexity, you will already be aware of quantum computing.
Otherwise, we can just wait for quantum computing to help researchers develop new pharmaceuticals and advanced materials. We will have more accurate weather forecasting and predict future economic conditions more accurately. We will increase productivity from optimal logistics planning, financial investments and supercharged AI.
All good news, except for a dangerous shark in the water.
The scary news is that, if quantum computers do scale up as expected, they can be used to unravel some of the most complex encryption methods we currently rely on to keep our data safe.
At present, it would take months or years to unscramble encryption keys. Within a few years, it may take a quantum computer seconds or minutes.
There is now a hive of activity trying to create post-quantum encryption technologies to avert this disaster.
The challenge is to do it quickly, so that existing encrypted data can be re-encrypted before quantum computers arrive. There is a very narrow margin of safety.
An arms race between China and the US has now developed, with both countries spending billions of dollars on quantum computing research.
It is now possible to experiment with quantum computers without any investment in hardware. IBM has, since 2016, offered quantum computing as a cloud service. Others have followed.
Users do not need to get their hands dirty trying to build complex multimillion dollar investments. Accessing quantum computing as a service is a simple way to benefit from their advantages now, without worrying about how they work.
As with any early stage technology that heralds a revolution, there is always a risk that hype exceeds the reality. Caution is advised, but there is now good reason to keep a close watch on this space.
- Dr Michael Snowden is the CEO of OneNet Limited.
